Development of a Microbiome–Immune–Metabolic Biomarker Panel for Predicting Implantation and Live-Birth Outcomes in Assisted Reproductive Technology
Forough Taheri,1,*
1. Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Introduction: Infertility affects a substantial proportion of reproductive-aged couples, and assisted reproductive technology (ART) has become an important treatment option. Nevertheless, implantation failure and unsuccessful pregnancy remain common, even when morphologically good-quality embryos are transferred. Increasing evidence suggests that the vaginal and endometrial microbial environment may influence reproductive outcomes through interactions with local immunity, inflammation, metabolism, and embryo–endometrium communication. However, existing studies have produced inconsistent results because of differences in sampling sites, laboratory methods, antibiotic exposure, patient characteristics, and clinical outcome definitions. A combined biomarker approach may provide greater predictive value than the analysis of individual microorganisms or isolated clinical variables.
Methods: A prospective observational cohort study will be conducted among women undergoing ART at an infertility treatment center. Participants will be recruited before embryo transfer and followed until pregnancy outcome. Clinical and demographic information, reproductive history, body mass index, infertility diagnosis, previous ART outcomes, medication use, antibiotic exposure, and embryo characteristics will be recorded.
Vaginal samples will be collected at a standardized stage of the treatment cycle before embryo transfer. The microbial profile will be assessed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction for selected bacterial taxa and, where feasible, 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Particular attention will be given to Lactobacillus dominance, bacterial dysbiosis, and the presence of potentially pathogenic microorganisms. Selected inflammatory and immune-related biomarkers—including interleukin-6, interleukin-8, tumor necrosis factor-α, and C-reactive protein—will be measured in blood and/or reproductive-tract samples. Metabolic markers, including glucose, insulin, lipid profile, and selected reproductive hormones, will also be evaluated.
Multivariable statistical models and machine-learning methods will be used to determine whether microbial, immune, metabolic, and clinical variables improve prediction of implantation and live birth compared with clinical variables alone. Model performance will be assessed using discrimination, calibration, internal validation, and clinically relevant predictive values.
Results: The study is expected to identify microbial, immune, and metabolic patterns associated with implantation failure and successful ART outcomes. A combined biomarker model may demonstrate greater predictive accuracy than any single biomarker or conventional clinical parameter. The findings may also clarify the influence of potentially modifiable factors, such as antibiotic exposure, metabolic status, and vaginal dysbiosis.
Conclusion: This project may provide a clinically relevant and relatively non-invasive strategy for improving patient stratification before embryo transfer. The resulting biomarker panel could support personalized counseling and treatment planning in ART and provide a foundation for future interventional studies targeting reproductive-tract dysbiosis and inflammation.